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Investment Solutions

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Investment Solutions

Features

Markets Week Ahead: Oil, Gold And Defence In Focus On Economic Tension

Rene Anthony

Saturday, February 12, 2022

Saturday, February 12, 2022

Financial markets are looking squarely at the growing risk of conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Earnings season sees heavyweights step up, and central bank minutes are on the agenda.

Financial markets are looking squarely at the growing risk of conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Earnings season sees heavyweights step up, and central bank minutes are on the agenda.

The ASX reporting season calendar is packed with high-profile results this week, however, it is concerns about the risk of conflict between Russia and Ukraine that may dominate financial markets. Those nerves have already fuelled a rally in oil and gold prices, while defence stocks have also been catching a bid.

Economic calendar and news

Diplomacy will be the main topic this week as countries seek to play peacemaker with Russia, and after French and US efforts to broker a peace deal failed to materialise over the weekend. Germany Chancellor Olaf Scholz will visit both Ukraine and Russia at the start of the week in an effort to find common ground between the countries.

Closer to home, the Reserve Bank of Australia will publish the minutes of its February meeting on Tuesday. The minutes are expected to provide further detail on the central bank decision to end its QE program and adjust its guidance for the interest rate outlook. Australian Job data will also paint a picture of the economy, but economists expect last month jobs report to offer a more stable picture compared with the bumper result from December. That means the unemployment rate is tipped to stay steady at 4.2%, with a modest drop in full-time jobs across January.US inflation data last week touched a 40-year high, defying promises from US President Joe Biden just a couple months ago that easing consumer prices were on the horizon. When producer price index data is released this week, it is tipped to show growth upwards of 9% or 10%, which is in keeping with an all-time high.The Fed Reserve is also releasing minutes from its most-recent meeting, and as is the case with the RBA minutes, investors will get a better indication on how the central bank sees monetary policy changing over the coming months.

Markets Week Ahead BHP CSL WPL BPT NST PayPal Meta

Stocks on watch

Energy stocks are set to come into focus this week, with the risk of conflict between Russia and Ukraine sending oil prices sharply higher. On Friday, March futures for West Texas Intermediate crude oil leapt 4.5% to almost US$94 per barrel, while April futures for Brent crude surpassed US$95 a barrel. Anxiety has only grown about the risk of Russia invading Ukraine after talks between US President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin failed to assuage concerns.

Some of the stocks from this sector that could see higher volumes over the following trading sessions include Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY), BP (NYSE: BP), Beach Energy (ASX: BPT), Santos (ASX: STO) and Woodside Petroleum (ASX: WPL). In the case of the ASX-listed trio, they are also reporting earnings this week.The threat of conflict has also sparked interest in aerospace and defence stocks, with the industry one that is accessible through US markets. Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) is at a 52-week high, in contrast to many US stocks of late, while Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC) is also trading at a similar level after surging as much as 8% last week.Gold prices also moved higher late last week amid the uncertainty, climbing nearly 2% to their highest level since mid-November last year, circling US$1,860 per ounce. That is a positive for the likes of Northern Star Resources (ASX: NST), Newcrest Mining (ASX: NCM), St Barbara (ASX: SBM) and Evolution Mining (ASX: EVN), among others. Meanwhile, accounting for the weaker Aussie dollar, the gold price in AUD is at its highest level since November, 2020, offering strong upside for domestic exporters of the precious metal.BHP (ASX: BHP), now an even bigger force on the ASX following its unification and reweighting, is the most-influential stock reporting this week. It will report first-half earnings on Tuesday morning, and while weaker iron ore prices during the half are expected to be a headwind - as they were for Mineral Resources (ASX: MIN) when it reported last week - the diversified miner is expected to benefit from a significant turnaround in the performance of its coal division, with prices rocketing.Not to be outshone, however, CSL (ASX: CSL) will also be in the spotlight for its results on Wednesday. One of its US-based rivals was recently forced to downgrade its forecast for plasma collections, so investors will be looking for clues on how this division has performed for the ASX biotech giant.Other high-profile ASX names set to hand down earnings this week include Aurizon (ASX: AZJ), Ansell (ASX: ANN), Seek (ASX: SEK), Fortescue Metals Group (ASX: FMG), Corporate Travel Management (ASX: CTD), South32 (ASX: S32), Whitehaven Coal (ASX: WHC), Goodman Group (ASX: GMG), Transurban (ASX: TCL), Telstra (ASX: TLS) and QBE Insurance (ASX: QBE).And finally, tech stocks remain an area that is tipped to make noise in the week ahead. After a tumble in the Nasdaq on Friday, tech-stocks have shown they are still susceptible to volatility, which could trouble the likes of Appen (ASX: APX), Nearmap (ASX: NEA) and WiseTech (ASX: WTC), while already beaten-down giants like Meta (NASDAQ: FB) and PayPal (NASDAQ: PYPL) have thus far been unable to chart a rebound following huge falls.

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