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Investment Solutions

Features

Investment Solutions

Features

ASX Week Ahead: Will the rally in bank shares continue?

Rene Anthony

Saturday, November 21, 2020

Saturday, November 21, 2020

Banks enter the new week full of momentum, having notched up some of their best weekly performances in recent times, and supporting a strong rally across the market that has the ASX looking to re-test its recent multi-month high.

Banks enter the new week full of momentum, having notched up some of their best weekly performances in recent times, and supporting a strong rally across the market that has the ASX looking to re-test its recent multi-month high.

Despite US stocks finishing in the red during Friday offshore trading session, the Australian stock market enters the week with a positive lead.

Futures suggest that local shares could help the market challenge its near nine-month high at the open, a feat that has been supported by a strong showing from the Big Four banks in recent weeks.

Economic calendar and news

With a relatively quiet week ahead in terms of local economic data and releases, there may be some focus on whether lockdown restrictions are expanded across parts of the US in response to new daily COVID cases spiralling out of control.

Certain US cities across the country have already begun to impose measures designed to fight the spread of the virus, or wound back reopening plans, with as many as twenty states believed to be recording their highest hospitalisation rates since the pandemic hit US shores.

Outside of data on durable goods orders, house prices, trade, consumer sentiment, and personal income and spending, the most-watched item will be the minutes from the most-recent Federal Reserve Board meeting. It is expected that the minutes will detail the central bank thoughts around adjusting its bond-buying program as means to stimulate the economy, with any changes likely to be formally announced at the December meeting.

ASX major movers

There may be some watchful eyes trained on retail stocks ahead of the all-important Black Friday shopping frenzy later this week. In what has become one of the busiest trading days for retailers across the world, investors looking for updates next week could be eyeing investments in anticipation of any potential run-up.

Some names that might be on the list include JB Hi-Fi (ASX: JBH), Premier Investments (ASX: PMV) and Kogan (ASX: KGN), as well as digital payments stocks such as Afterpay (ASX: APT) and Zip Co (ASX: Z1P).For the second week in a row, gold stocks were among the worst-performers last week as the price of the precious metal drifted lower again. Since Pfizer vaccine announcement there has been broad-based liquidation across US gold-backed ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, with three successive daily outflows of cash bringing the total reduction of the fund to 2.8%, the largest two-week decline since the March crash.Whether local gold stocks like Newcrest Mining (ASX: NCM), Evolution Mining (ASX: EVN) and St Barbara (ASX: SBM) can bounce from their monthly lows remains to be seen, however, the US Federal Reserve commentary throughout the week could have a sway on the interchange between expectations regarding yields, interest rates and inflation expectations, all of which impact gold.Bank shares have picked up momentum in recent weeks as economists' forecasts regarding the bounce in the nation economy have been upgraded, and as the government looks to address regulatory pressure stifling the economic rebound. Commonwealth Bank (ASX: CBA) had its best weekly performance in nine years last week, while the rest of the bank sector has jumped over the last fortnight, although some traders may be mindful of profit taking after such a strong run.Shares in Amcor (ASX: AMC) and Elders (ASX: ELD) both trade ex-dividend today, with the list of dividend-paying stocks looking pretty thin as we head into the final weeks of the year.There are also two confirmed listings on the agenda for the coming days, with a flurry of ipos rounding out 2020. This week the ASX will welcome mining company WA Kaolin (ASX: WAK), which raised $22 million, and HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (ASX: HDN), which secured $300 million.Last but not least, stocks hitting a high note last week included Xero (ASX: XRO), Wesfarmers (ASX: WES) and Seven West Group (ASX: SVW), where momentum has been steadily building.

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