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Investment Solutions

Features

Investment Solutions

Features

ASX Week Ahead: Stage four lockdown, RBA statement, US unemployment

Rene Anthony

Saturday, August 1, 2020

Saturday, August 1, 2020

The impact of the latest Stage Four lockdown restrictions in Melbourne could separate the performance of shares this week, with some industries likely to be hit hard, while online businesses and supermarkets could fare better.

The impact of the latest Stage Four lockdown restrictions in Melbourne could separate the performance of shares this week, with some industries likely to be hit hard, while online businesses and supermarkets could fare better.

Local shares look set to start the week on the back foot, weighed down by news of stage four lockdown in Melbourne. Although US shares performed strongly on Friday evening, ASX futures did not rise with the US market. Furthermore, US Dow Jones futures have opened slightly lower this morning.Investor sentiment could be tested as uncertainty builds over the state of the fragile Australian economy. Shareholders will also review the next round of earnings results due later this week, as well as jobs growth in the US.

Economic calendar and news

The most critical piece of local news this week is likely to be the second part of the Victorian government Stage Four announcement. Further information will detail which industries continue to operate through the latest lockdown restrictions. There have been some reports that additional fiscal support may be rolled out in Victoria, with further news likely this week.Elsewhere, the Reserve Bank of Australia will meet on Tuesday, albeit no change is expected from the current record-low interest rate. The central bank will also release its Statement on Monetary Policy this Friday, which will include its assessment of economic conditions. Other key data this week includes retail sales, which forecasts suggest rose in July, as well as exports and imports.Overseas, the latest US employment data will provide investors some insight into the state of the US economic recovery. There are wide variances in the forecasts for jobs growth, however, analysts expect a further reduction in the unemployment rate. Data will also be published on manufacturing activity, factory orders, as well as the balance of trade.

ASX reporting spotlight and major movers

There could be extra volatility in certain sectors this week depending on the industries impacted by Victoria new lockdown measures. It remains to be seen whether the construction industry is restricted, in which case companies like Cimic Group (ASX: CIM), Lend Lease (ASX: LLC) and Downer EDI (ASX: DOW) could record above-average trading volume. Materials companies like Amcor (ASX: AMC) and Orora (ASX: ORA) are among stocks with manufacturing operations in Melbourne.Meanwhile, a reduction in traffic could be on the minds of shareholders in Transurban (ASX: TCL), which operates Melbourne CityLink toll road. There may also be some additional scrutiny in logistics companies such as Qube Holdings (ASX: QUB) as investors analyse how the company operations might be affected.A new wave of panic buying may provide a near-term tailwind for supermarket operators such as Woolworths (ASX: WOW) and Coles (ASX: COL). Retailers with online sales growth such as Kogan (ASX: KGN), Temple & Webster Group (ASX: TPW) and JB Hi-Fi (ASX: JBH) may be on the radar of investors as consumers are forced to shop from home. Both Coles and JB Hi-Fi enter this week having traded at all-time highs.Later this week, ResMed (ASX: RMD) will report its full-year earnings on Thursday morning, followed by Insurance Australia Group (ASX: IAG) and REA Group (ASX: REA) on Friday. There will also be results from various REITs. For dividend hunters, Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO) will trade ex-dividend on Thursday. The iron ore miner declared a US$1.55 per share dividend when it reported its HY20 results last week.Last but not least, NextDC (ASX: NXT) will be on close watch among momentum traders as the stock recently achieved a new all-time high. Another stock brimming with confidence is Healius (ASX: HLS), which made a 52-week high, while Whitehaven Coal (ASX: WHC) fell to a 52-week low.

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