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Investment Solutions

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Investment Solutions

Features

The Losers from Higher Oil Prices

Rene Anthony

Tuesday, March 8, 2022

Tuesday, March 8, 2022

High oil prices are a headwind for a number of sectors, but the fact remains, if elevated prices prove to be short-lived, the retreat could also be a catalyst for a rally in certain stocks.

High oil prices are a headwind for a number of sectors, but the fact remains, if elevated prices prove to be short-lived, the retreat could also be a catalyst for a rally in certain stocks.

With oil prices surging to 13-year highs earlier this week, before subsequently dropping sharply overnight, there are broad consequences for a range of different sectors both directly and indirectly.

We know that conventional and shale oil producers stand to benefit amid higher prices, as do oil services firms, and potentially even renewables given higher oil prices add to what is already heightened pressure to transition to green sources of energy. 

However, the impact is also felt in other industries, not to mention, rampant inflation has the potential to threaten the global economy. So what are some of the segments of the market that feel the pinch when oil prices soar, and benefit if oil prices decline? 

Transport and logistics operators

Freight companies are among those that face challenges in the wake of higher oil prices. Again, the direct impact here is that fuel costs are a major component of the operating expenses for transport operators such as FedEx (NYSE: FDX) and United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS).Even Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), with a sizeable logistics fleet operating in many corners of the world is another company that one might expect to see its fuel expenses increase if oil prices remain elevated for a significant period of time. In more traditional times, vessels and marine shipping operators Golden Ocean Group (NASDAQ: GOGL) and ZIM Integrated Shipping (NYSE: ZIM) would also be concerned about the prospect of margins being squeezed, as oil prices are also a major headwind. Since the pandemic, however, there has been an unprecedented boom in the ocean shipping industry, and as with rail operators like Aurizon (ASX: AZJ), there is some power to pass on these costs to customers.

Airlines

Arguably no other industry feels the effects of soaring oil prices as much as the airline industry, including the likes of Qantas (ASX: QAN), United Airlines (NASDAQ: UAL) and American Airlines (NASDAQ: AAL). Each bears the direct brunt of the price action since jet fuel is one of their biggest expenses. Recent trading sessions have seen these stocks trade almost in sync with movements in the oil market, plunging on higher oil prices, and rallying strongly on easing energy prices.While many airlines employ a variety of measures to hedge against higher oil prices, and often implement fuel surcharges in times of sky-high prices, these measures only provide some protection rather than offset headwinds entirely. Airlines would rather have oil prices trading at more sustainable levels than rely on risky hedging strategies, which have backfired in the past.

The Losers from Higher Oil Prices

Consumer-facing businesses

It no secret that higher oil prices hit every consumer at the petrol pump, and the impact is felt most in emerging markets, where it presents a major obstacle to economic growth. The consequence of higher petrol prices is less money to spend elsewhere on discretionary purchases. 

Consumer discretionary businesses, for example, Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS), are among those that in light of inflationary pressures like rising fuel costs might be considered indirectly susceptible to the effects of higher oil prices. There is even a case to be argued that this may sometimes flow through to consumer staple stocks, where more disposable income tends to align with higher spending across businesses such as Costco (NASDAQ: COST), EstĆ©e Lauder (NYSE: EL) and Constellation Brands (NYSE: STZ).And rounding out an earlier point we touched on, holiday makers and travel agents like Flight Centre (ASX: FLT), Webjet (ASX: WEB), Expedia (NASDAQ: EXPE) and Booking (NASDAQ: BKNG) also have a barrier to deal with when airlines start increasing airfare prices or implement fuel surcharges in response to high oil prices.

Manufacturing firms

Where energy is a high input in a company manufacturing operations, for example, smelting, there is an obvious challenge in terms of costs. These costs may be passed onto purchasers of materials or consumers, but that invariably leads to demand challenges.

On a similar note, it worth noting that not every stock leveraged to the energy industry is guaranteed to outperform in light of higher oil prices. Consider refiners, especially pure-play refiners, which rely on oil as a main input when manufacturing petroleum products. 

More broadly, a major increase in crude oil prices, as we've seen recently, has the potential to put the brakes on demand. In turn, this can potentially impact gross margins thanks to the diminishing appeal of crack spreads', which are the price difference between products and crude oil. This is a complicated equation based on demand, but for companies like Ampol (ASX: ALD), BP (NYSE: BP) and Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM), they can withstand some shock to their refining divisions because they benefit from higher petrol prices due to their retail network.And finally, let not forget traditional auto-makers like General Motors (NYSE: GM) that have been slow to make the pivot towards producing electric vehicles or hybrids. When petrol prices are higher, motorists are more inclined to take public transport, and there is even room to suggest they may look at more efficient cars.

All told, higher oil prices may present challenges for a number of sectors and industries, but that may lead to buying opportunities for investors and traders who believe the current spike in crude oil prices is a short-term blip likely to fade.

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