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Investment Solutions

Features

Markets Week Ahead: Westpac launches $3.5bn buyback, Fed policy pivot expected to take shape

Rene Anthony

Saturday, October 30, 2021

Saturday, October 30, 2021

Central banks will play an influential role throughout the trading week, with more pressure building over the interest rate outlook.

Central banks will play an influential role throughout the trading week, with more pressure building over the interest rate outlook.

On Friday, US markets looked past disappointing results from Apple and Amazon, setting new records in the process. It has positioned the ASX for a bright start this morning, in what will prove to be a week dominated by central bank policy, COP26, jobs data, and another round of earnings reports.

Economic calendar and news

The Reserve Bank of Australia is meeting tomorrow, and it comes at a time where a number of observers are beginning to predict the central bank may need to respond to inflation by lifting rates next year. We will also receive a final reading on services and manufacturing activity from October, as well as information on retail sales from September, exports and imports from September, plus the RBA Statement on Monetary Policy, which is due to be published Friday morning.

In the US, the Federal Reserve takes centre stage as it convenes for its latest Board meeting. Economists anticipate the Fed will formally announce its plans to commence winding back its bond-buying program, potentially as soon as this month, with the $US120 billion per month program expected to come to a halt by the middle of next year. Crucial for investors will be commentary around whether interest rates are likely to recalibrate immediately at the conclusion of the QE program, as Fed members have seemingly been divided on this point.That won'tbe the end of the high-profile news events, however, with non-farm payrolls data due later in the week. After a lacklustre result across September, the US economy is expected to have added somewhere in the vicinity of 300,000 to 400,000 jobs last month, although there have been a spate of misses' on estimates in recent months. Nevertheless, with COVID cases subsiding across the country throughout October, it may have spurred on hiring across businesses. The unemployment rate is tipped to remain broadly in line with that from the month prior, at or around 4.7%, although that will be swayed by the participation rate. Wage growth, however, could be scrutinised closely as inflation has hit levels not seen in 30 years.Other data in the US over the coming days will include manufacturing activity, factory orders, the balance of trade and jobless claims.Elsewhere, the Bank of England could be on watch as it is tipped to become the latest central bank shifting away from easy' monetary policy as concerns surrounding inflation take hold. It is forecast to raise interest rates, something that has already begun taking place in New Zealand, Korea and Norway, among others.

Developments out of the G20 meeting, held over the weekend, as well as the United Nations Climate Change Conference, known as COP26, will also be widely discussed during the week ahead.

Stocks on watch

Another wave of earnings reports will be at hand in the US, with the pharmaceutical sector arguably the most high-profile over the coming trading sessions. Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) and Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) will deliver results, with both companies now in the midst of pushing their vaccine booster roll-outs, and vaccine access likely to be expanded to a wider demographic, including children for the Pfizer vaccine. Moderna, however, now faces a delay from the FDA in its application to authorise the use of its vaccine across adolescents. Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: REGN), an emerging biotech firm that has developed treatments for COVID, will also publish its quarterly results.Buoyant oil prices have been a tailwind for the energy sector. Further signs of this could come when the likes of BP (NYSE: BP), ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP), Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY) report, not to mention the exposure Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B), which reports over the weekend, has through its assets in various energy firms.

Travel names are also a prominent fixture on the earnings calendar this week. Household names such as Booking Holdings (NASDAQ: BKNG), Airbnb (NASDAQ: ABNB) and Expedia (NASDAQ: EXPE) will report, as will leisure names like MGM Resorts (NYSE: MGM), Hyatt Hotels (NYSE: H) and Caesars Entertainment (NASDAQ: CZR). With the US on the verge of reopening international travel to a host of countries, forward guidance could be the most crucial indicator among these companies.

In terms of ASX names, Westpac (ASX: WBC) is the obvious name in the spotlight after handing down results this morning. The bank has reported a cash profit of $5.25 billion for FY21, while also taking the opportunity to follow the other leading banks in announcing a buyback. Westpac will conduct a $3.5 billion off-market buyback, and also pay a final dividend of $0.60 per share to shareholders, almost double that recorded a year ago. 

In making this decision, management pointed to the credit quality on its books, and significantly lower mortgage delinquencies of more than three months, although higher costs and lower net interest margins, down 4 basis points, have weighed on earnings. The bank CET1 capital ratio rose 119 basis points to 12.32%.

Coal stocks may be watched over the coming days after seeing a recent downturn in light of a commitment from Chinese authorities to curb coal prices. Names like New Hope (ASX: NHC) and Whitehaven Coal (ASX: WHC) have gone from being top-performing names a few weeks ago to some of the worst-performing stocks in recent trading sessions. This week focus on COP26 may also be another factor for consideration with regards to sentiment towards these stocks.Former favourites including Kogan (ASX: KGN) and Pointsbet (ASX: PBH) have hit a rough patch lately, with the latter at one stage dipping to its lowest level in 14 months.Other names on watch include BNPL contenders Sezzle (ASX: SZL) and Zip (ASX: Z1P), which have been struggling to gain any meaningful traction and momentum over recent months, and Vulcan Energy Resources (ASX: VUL), which was the subject of a controversial short report last week that it sought to dismiss as disinformation¯.

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