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Investment Solutions

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Investment Solutions

Features

Markets Week Ahead: Wages, jobs data to test RBA’s nerve

Rene Anthony

Monday, November 6, 2023

Monday, November 6, 2023

The release of high-profile wages and jobs data will be instrumental to the RBA’s next rates decision, as will US inflation data for the Fed.

The release of high-profile wages and jobs data will be instrumental to the RBA’s next rates decision, as will US inflation data for the Fed.

Economic Calendar and News

This week’s economic agenda is packed with significant events. A major highlight is the quarterly wage price index, a critical data point for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Economists anticipate an increase of about 1.3% quarter-over-quarter, which could heavily influence the RBA’s monetary policy decisions.

Attention will turn to the jobs market on Thursday. The official unemployment rate is expected to tick up slightly to 3.7%, reflecting a modest rise in employment nationwide. Moreover, the market is eagerly awaiting insights from Marion Kohler, the RBA’s acting Assistant Governor. Her speech might shed light on the central bank’s recent ‘dovish’ pivot, stirring interest among traders and analysts.

Internationally, the U.S. is set to release its monthly consumer price data. Predictions suggest a dip in annual headline inflation from 3.7% to 3.3%, with a minimal monthly price growth of just 0.1%. Meanwhile, core inflation is expected to have grown by 0.3% month-over-month and 4.2% annually. Other vital data releases this week include the US retail sales, US producer price index, US unemployment claims, CPI data from the UK, and retail sales and industrial production figures from China.

Stocks on Watch

ANZ Bank (ASX: ANZ) is in the spotlight today after announcing full-year results. The bank reported a cash profit of $7.4 billion, a 14% increase from the previous year. Despite this growth, the bank faced challenges in retail banking margins, leading to a share price drop. Total revenue rose to $20.9 billion, up 13%, largely due to a focus on institutional banking. ANZ increased its provisions for potential credit losses, reflecting caution in an uncertain economic environment. The final dividend was declared at 94 cents per share. The bank’s performance indicates a strategic shift amidst competitive pressures and economic challenges.

Amid significant cyberattack concerns impacting DP World’s stevedoring business, Qube Holdings (ASX: QUB) has reportedly offered assistance through its Patrick Terminals division. This development underscores the critical nature of cybersecurity in today’s interconnected business landscape.

Other notable earnings reports this week are expected from agriculture firms Elders (ASX: ELD) and Graincorp (ASX: GNC), both of which will present their full-year results for FY23. These reports will provide valuable insights into the agricultural sector’s performance.

AGM season continues with key meetings from Flight Centre Travel Group (ASX: FLT), SEEK Limited (ASX: SEK), and Tyro Payments (ASX: TYR). These events are likely to include trading updates, offering investors a glimpse into the companies’ current operational status.

From the US, retail giants like Walmart (NYSE: WMT), Target (NYSE: TGT), Home Depot (NYSE: HD), and Macy’s (NYSE: M) are set to report their quarterly results. These reports will be closely watched for insights into the strength of the American consumer market at this juncture.

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