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Investment Solutions

Features

Investment Solutions

Features

Markets Week Ahead: US tech surge, space rate heats up, RBA to decide QE outlook

Rene Anthony

Saturday, July 3, 2021

Saturday, July 3, 2021

This week could see some of the most important central bank commentary since the pandemic began, with the monetary policy outlook set to be shaped by the Fed and RBA.

This week could see some of the most important central bank commentary since the pandemic began, with the monetary policy outlook set to be shaped by the Fed and RBA.

Robust job numbers in the US helped extend the market rally on Friday evening, while also setting up local shares for a positive start to the new trading week.

Subdued bond yields have given tech stocks an impetus to rise, although central bank musings will be pivotal in a week where both the Fed and RBA ponder monetary policy.

Economic calendar and news

With the US share market closed tonight amid the Fourth of July holiday, the remainder of the week will turn to central bank insights. 

The minutes from the most-recent Fed meeting could shed light on its early discussion around paring its US$120 billion per month bond-buying activity, which is seen as the precursor before any lift in interest rates. Of most concern would be the timing and pace at which any changes to the quantitative easing program take place, with most economists expecting greater clarity in August, but the potential for an early surprise still lies on the table.Other data out of the US this week includes services activity readings, job openings, crude oil inventories, jobless claims and wholesale trade.

Back in Australia, a host of data on show today includes group construction activity for June, preliminary building permits for May, final retail sales for May, services activity, and job advertisements.

The Reserve Bank of Australia convenes for its monthly Board meeting tomorrow. Rates are not expected to move given there has been no signs of wage growth as yet, but the central bank will have two issues to deal with. 

First, it will be forced to review its target for the yield on 3-year Australian Government bonds. The central bank will also need to give thought to what actions it will take when the second round of quantitative easing, comprising $100 billion in asset purchases, comes to conclusion in September. 

This may involve the bank ceasing purchases, reaffirming them over a similar or even longer timeframe, or tapering purchases. A number of economists expect the RBA to recommit to a new round of purchasing over six months, by which point the US may have likely moved first in tapering, although it could jump ahead of the Fed in kicking off tapering first.

Late Tuesday, Governor Philip Lowe will also speak at the RBA on the bank monetary policy decision, before he later presents at the Economic Society of Australia on Thursday regarding the labour market and monetary policy.

Stocks on watch

It was mega-tech that helped power US indices to new heights, with the likes of Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) both hitting an all-time high. That run also extended to other household names across different sectors including Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), Visa (NYSE: V), Adobe (NASDAQ: ADBE), Nike (NYSE: NKE) and Costco (NASDAQ: COST).

Meanwhile, there was significant volume in British-American spaceflight company Virgin Galactic (NYSE: SPCE), with more than 136 million shares in the stock trading hands last week. That was the second-most of any stock across the US share market. Elevated interest came as the company announced its founder, Sir Richard Branson, would be on its next spaceflight test scheduled for July 11. The commercial space race looks set to heat up with Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin eyeing its first passenger spaceflight on July 20.

After a long-awaited ipo, Didi (NYSE: DIDI) was another of last week major stocks on notice, with volume still likely to be elevated over the coming days. On Friday, just two days after the company debut, China announced a cybersecurity review of the ride-hailing business, and also banned the company from app stores, sapping momentum from the stock after a 16% rise on day two.Elsewhere, gold prices rallied into the close of last week action, with the precious metal inching closer to the US$1,800/oz mark. One of the best-performing shares towards the end of last week was Regis Resources (ASX: RRL), which turned around its lacklustre performance from the first days of the week to surge sharply higher.Sydney Airport (ASX: SYD) has released news of a proposed takeover this morning, with the stock the subject of a bid valued at $8.25 per share. At this stage, with the deal fresh on the table, management will be reviewing the offer, albeit it is a conditional and non-binding offer.Collins Food (ASX: CKF) and Spark Infrastructure (ASX: SKI) will both trade ex-dividend on Wednesday, with the duo set to reward shareholders with a dividend of 12.5 cents per share and 6.25 cents per share respectively.In terms of local momentum stocks, there were records for IDP Education (ASX: IEL), in the wake of acquisition news, Washington H Soul Pattinson (ASX: SOL), following the announcement of its merger with Milton Corp, and Cettire (ASX: CTT), as it seeks to expand its product range. Blue-chip names hitting 52-week highs included Telstra (ASX: TLS), Mineral Resources (ASX: MIN), Boral (ASX: BLD), Medibank Private (ASX: MPL) and Perpetual (ASX: PPT).

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