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Investment Solutions

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Investment Solutions

Features

Markets Week Ahead: Omicron set to upend market sentiment

Rene Anthony

Saturday, November 27, 2021

Saturday, November 27, 2021

All the focus this week will be on the emergence of the new Omicron COVID variant, and how governments across the world choose to respond to the threat

All the focus this week will be on the emergence of the new Omicron COVID variant, and how governments across the world choose to respond to the threat

Growing concern about the spread of the new Omicron COVID variant is all but certain to dampen sentiment at the market open this morning, with Australian futures pointing to heavy losses. Travel stocks, energy shares and the banks are among those exposed to the immediate fallout, as seen in Friday dramatic trading session in the US.

Economic calendar and news

Much of this week economic data is likely to play second fiddle to the concerns surrounding the new Omicron variant, meaning analysts and investors will be paying close attention to the latest health advice and observations on the spread of the strain.

Nonetheless, Australia will report third-quarter GDP on Wednesday, and the numbers are not expected to paint a rosy picture. In the wake of lockdowns that hit NSW and Victoria, as well as the ACT, GDP is expected to tumble about 3% quarter-on-quarter.Meanwhile, We'll also receive the latest numbers on company gross profits, business inventories, building permits, private sector credit, the balance of trade, plus manufacturing and services activity for November.In the US, look out for a number of speeches from Federal Reserve officials, and the emergence of the Omicron strain could be a talking point if figureheads are pressed on their concerns for the economic recovery and unwinding accommodative monetary policy.US employment data will follow later in the week, with economists tipping another half a million jobs were added to the US economy in November. That figure has been accompanied by a forecast the unemployment rate may ease to 4.5%.

Stocks on watch

The biggest names on watch this week could well be travel stocks, with airlines and booking platforms facing a new wave of uncertainty on the back of fresh COVID concerns. Already, a number of countries have raced to place certain restrictions on international travel, while Sydney and Melbourne have pivoted back to quarantine, at least for the time being. 

US travel stocks were crushed on Friday evening, with Delta Airlines (NYSE: DAL), United Airlines (NASDAQ: UAL) and American Airlines (NASDAQ: AAL) each down more than 8%. Booking.com (NASDAQ: BKNG) was also hit hard, paving the way for ASX travel stocks such as Webjet (ASX: WEB), Flight Centre (ASX: FLT), Qantas (ASX: QAN) and Corporate Travel Management (ASX: CTD) to face a shaky start to the week.

Oil markets were dealt a hammer blow on the back of the Omicron news, with oil seeing its worst price decline in over a year. During trading on Friday, crude futures slumped by more than 13%, highlighting concerns that the global economic recovery could be on fragile territory if restrictions ramp up and energy demand subsides. 

The move has prompted OPEC+ to mull its decision to raise output, with sources suggesting the alliance may scrap plans to increase crude production from January. News will emerge later this week on a decision, however, volatility is almost certainly likely to hit names such as BP (NYSE: BP), Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY), Woodside Petroleum (ASX: WPL), Santos (ASX: STO) and Beach Energy (ASX: BPT).

The major banks may also be in the firing line amid the uncertainty of further restrictions, lockdowns and the impact on the global economy, with US majors such as JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM) and Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) hit hard on Friday evening. Locally, Westpac (ASX: WBC) hit a near 10-month low last week, and that may well be tested further at the open this morning, while Commonwealth Bank (ASX: CBA) enters the week on shaky territory at a 6-month low.Although gold prices failed to make any inroads in recovering late last week during the market uncertainty, it remains to be seen whether gold shares see some interest over the coming trading sessions. Gold is seen as a hedge against uncertainty and often comes into favour when market volatility takes hold, however, investors also need to look back to the initial market crash in March last year to realise that even gold prices and gold miners can come unstuck amid initial panic.The Betashares Australian Equities Strong Bear Hedge Fund (ASX: BBOZ) and BetaShares US Equities Strong Bear Hedge Fund (ASX: BBUS) are likely to see a surge in volume this week if investors grow concerned about the outlook for the market. These ETFs rise when the market is falling, however, they are highly-leveraged and very risky products, typically only used for short-term trades by experienced investors.There may also be some interest in health care stocks that last year proved somewhat resilient to the threat of COVID. Fisher & Paykel Healthcare (ASX: FPH) is one company that has generated business through the pandemic by providing ventilators, while pharmaceutical giants Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), BioNTech (NASDSAQ: BNTX) and Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) now face the prospect of developing new rounds of modified vaccines to tackle the Omicron variant, fuelling a rally in these stocks on Friday.

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