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Investment Solutions

Features

Markets Week Ahead: Oil tumble signals recession fears

Rene Anthony

Saturday, September 24, 2022

Saturday, September 24, 2022

Investors remain nervous about the risk of a global recession, with some commodity prices now starting to reflect that concern.

Investors remain nervous about the risk of a global recession, with some commodity prices now starting to reflect that concern.

Growing concerns about a global recession, and bold tax reform in the UK weighed on overseas equities late last week, with that negative sentiment set to impact the ASX this morning. 

Economic Calendar and News

Straight off the back of last week 75 basis point rate hike, a host of Federal Reserve officials will speak in the US this week, and investors will be listening closely for any further clues on whether a fourth supersized rate hike is on the cards at its next meeting in November.At the end of the week, We'll be offered greater insight on how inflation is tracking in the US, thanks to personal income and spending data, including the Personal Consumption Expenditure index, considered one of the most influential inflation readings for the US central bank.

With oil prices dropping sharply over recent weeks, the price index may point to moderating growth, but it is likely investors will be looking at the core' PCE index, which is considered a more reliable benchmark as it strips out energy and food costs. On this front, forecasts suggest the core PCE price index picked up pace in August.

Other data out of the US this week includes durable goods orders, consumer confidence, as well as figures for new and pending home sales.Meanwhile, Treasury yields continue to rise, with two-year US Treasury yields trading at a 15-year high of 4.2%, and 10-year yields just shy of 3.7%.Also overseas, inflation data out of the Eurozone is likely to keep central bankers under pressure, just as the political landscape shifts in member countries Sweden and Italy following key elections.China also has a central role to play this week, with its PMI data due on Friday, something that will be a telltale sign for growth in the world second largest economy.A slump in the Australian dollar is one of the focal points for local news watchers, with the currency hitting its lowest level since May, 2020, trading at just over 65 US cents. That could also put more pressure on the RBA to push through larger rate hikes, as a lower currency makes imports more expensive, and only adds fuel to the inflation dilemma at hand. 

Markets Week Ahead: Oil tumble signals recession fears

Stocks on watch

ASX-listed oil stocks could be in for a rude shock at the start of the new trading week, with the price of West Texas Intermediate crude futures down almost 6% on Friday evening to under US$80 per barrel. That is the lowest figure since the start of the year, even as the implications of the war in Ukraine continue to hang over the energy market.

US energy stocks were battered on Friday, with Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN) shedding 8.6%, Chevron (NYSE: CVX) down 6.5%, Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) off by 5.3%, Marathon Oil (NYSE: MRO) falling almost 11%, and Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY) also sinking more than 5%. This could put pressure on local energy stocks like Woodside Energy (ASX: WDS), Santos (ASX: STO), and Beach Energy (ASX: BPT).

Sticking with commodities, both iron ore stocks and gold shares enter the new trading week with a strong negative lead. 

ASX titans BHP (ASX: BHP) and Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO) were both savaged in US trading on Friday, sinking 4.6% and 5.8% respectively. That came despite iron ore prices holding up during the offshore trading session, and a falling Aussie dollar helping the export pair. Instead, investors appear to be concerned about slowing global economic growth and the risk of a recession, particularly with steel volume demand out of China sitting at low levels. Gold prices dropped more than 1.5% during Friday night trading session in the US, which also doesn't bode well for producers of the precious metal, even though they are being helped by favourable currency movements. With the commodity now trading at a two-and-a-half year low, names on watch this week include Newcrest Mining (ASX: NCM), Northern Star Resources (ASX: NST), Evolution Mining (ASX: EVN), Regis Resources (ASX: RRL), Gold Road Resources (ASX: GOR), and De Grey Mining (ASX: DEG), among others.On the other hand, coal stocks have been this year clear outperformer, with Whitehaven Coal (ASX: WHC) and New Hope (ASX: NHC) both setting records at the end of last week. Despite the segment remarkable turnaround in 2022, it a different story for coal power station operator AGL (ASX: AGL), which will reportedly provide an update on its decarbonisation plan during the week ahead. 

Australia largest electricity generator, which had its demerger plans scuppered a couple months back only to record a drastic share price sell-off since that time, is expected to share some of the early outcomes from its strategic review. However, a formal strategy announcement is not anticipated at this time.

In the US, there will be earnings from sportswear giant Nike (NYSE: NKE) and semiconductor maker Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU), with both due to report Thursday afternoon US-time. 

Nike has been facing supply-chain bottlenecks and COVID restrictions in its second largest market, China, but it has seen global production pass pre-pandemic levels thanks to strong demand out of Europe and North America.

In contrast, Micron recently warned shareholders that it would fall short of its revenue guidance, with demand for its memory semiconductors reportedly waning due to stockpiling.

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