Markets Week Ahead: Hard landing fears resurface
Rene Anthony
Comments from US Fed Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sparked a brutal sell-off across Wall Street on Friday evening, and that means the ASX is facing steep losses at the opening bell.
Economic Calendar and News
Financial markets are likely to continue assessing the fallout from last week Jackson Hole symposium, where the Federal Reserve indicated it is willing to inflict some pain to households and businesses in order to rein in inflation.
That means the US central bank could foresee a short recession ahead, or at least may be prepared to deal with the prospect of that happening as it continues hiking interest rates.
The comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell signal the nation policy makers are nowhere near the end of their shift in monetary policy, and investors may be prudent to reconsider how long rates will stay at a higher level in order to successfully quash inflation. Speaking to this, Powell said, restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for some time.With the next policy meeting a little over three weeks away, this week jobs data will prove a critical input for September rate decision.
Economists suggest the US economy continued to add new hires throughout August, albeit at a slower pace than the preceding month. Consensus figures suggest around 300,000 jobs may have been added, with the unemployment rate steady at 3.5%, and average hourly earnings growing at a healthy clip.
Before the jobs data, however, investors will also be treated to updates on job openings, manufacturing activity for August, home prices, and consumer confidence. For Australian finance watchers, all the talk this week surrounds the upcoming jobs summit, scheduled for the back end of the week, with sector-wide bargaining agreements at the centre of considerable debate.In terms of raw data, look out for preliminary retail sales from July, as well as a number of indicators that will shed light on the state of the property market. These include home loan numbers, building permits, and housing approvals from July.
Rounding things out, there is also fresh data on private sector credit, private capex, and manufacturing activity from August.
Stocks on watch
There are still a few ASX names left to close out the August reporting season, with the Monday line-up including but not limited to Fortescue Metals Group (ASX: FMG), Mineral Resources (ASX: MIN), NextDC (ASX: NXT), Invocare (ASX: IVC), and Northern Star Resources (ASX: NST).
Both FMG and Mineral Resources have benefitted from elevated commodity prices throughout the period, as well as bumper production levels. Although prices for the steel-making ingredient have since fallen quite steeply, shareholders will be scrutinising guidance outlooks, not to mention, big dividends. FMG has declared a dividend of $1.21 per share, while Mineral Resources, which saw performance improve during the second-half, has declared a fully-franked final dividend for FY22 of $1 per share, based on underlying earnings after tax of $400 million.
Meanwhile, gold producer Northern Star has posted cash earnings of $1 billion, although underlying NPAT dived 27% to $273 million. Nonetheless, it is enough for the company to launch a $300 million on-market buyback.
The A2 Milk Company (ASX: A2M) has handed down earnings this morning, also headlined by news it will undertake an on-market share buyback, valued at up to NZ$150 million. Throughout FY22 the dairy supplier grew its revenue 19.8% to NZ$1.4 billion, while net profit after tax rebounded over 40% to NZ$114.7 million. Looking ahead, management expects revenue growth in the high single-digit range for FY23. Tomorrow will bring earnings from another battery metal name in IGO (ASX: IGO), while Woodside Energy Group (ASX: WDS) and Link Administration Holdings (ASX: LNK) are the other high-profile stocks set to report.
With energy prices at sky-high levels throughout most of the first-half of its financial year, Woodside is in pole position to declare strong earnings and a generous return for shareholders. Last week the stock hit a two-year high amid upbeat sentiment for the oil and gas major.
On Wednesday, earnings season comes to a close with results from global toll road operator and developer Atlas Arteria (ASX: ALX), as well as mid-tier gold producer St Barbara (ASX: SBM). Outside of earnings, investors will be looking closely at developments surrounding hospital group Ramsay Health Care (ASX: RHC), which last week disclosed to the market that its takeover proposal had fallen through.
Its suitor, KKR & Co, which had kept Ramsay shareholders waiting for months, sought to renegotiate the structure and pricing of the initial all-cash proposal, instead seeking to push for a cash-and-scrip offer instead.
Ramsay Board wasted no time rejecting the alternative offer, arguing it was meaningfully inferior. It puts the spotlight on the pair, as shareholders wait to see whether KKR will return with another bid for Australia largest private hospital operator.
Overseas, with markets at a critical juncture amid signs of investor skittishness, mega-tech stocks may hold the greatest influence as to what happens next. Shares in Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL), and Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) all plunged sharply on Friday, and Nasdaq futures have already opened 1% lower this morning. It was a slightly different story for some of the tech names out of Hong Kong, which had a more fruitful week on news that Chinese and US regulators are co-operating in efforts to make financial audits accessible for inspection by US authorities. The Hang Seng Tech Index recorded its largest one-day gain since April on Thursday, surging 6%, led by the likes of Alibaba (HKG: 9988) and JD.com (HKG: 9618).
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