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Investment Solutions

Features

Investment Solutions

Features

ASX Week Ahead: Trade tension, gold prices and third-quarter GDP under scrutiny

Rene Anthony

Sunday, November 29, 2020

Sunday, November 29, 2020

With gold prices dropping below US$1800/oz, traders will be looking to see whether the precious metal can pare its losses. Australia-China trade tension looms as a talking point for the likes of Treasury Wine and other exporters, while third-quarter GDP could show a return to economic growth.

With gold prices dropping below US$1800/oz, traders will be looking to see whether the precious metal can pare its losses. Australia-China trade tension looms as a talking point for the likes of Treasury Wine and other exporters, while third-quarter GDP could show a return to economic growth.

Another positive start to the week looms after US stocks eked out gains in a shortened trading session on Friday evening.

Australia-China trade tension is expected to be a key investment topic this week, while a slew of local economic data will be headlined by third-quarter GDP. As the ipo window draws shut for 2020, more companies line up to make their debut in the week ahead.

Economic calendar and news

In what will be an eventful week for economists, things will kick off this morning with third-quarter data on business inventory and company profits, one of the last pieces of the puzzle ahead of the all-important GDP reading.

There will also be readings into private sector credit and building permits for October, plus manufacturing activity for November. The Reserve Bank of Australia will meet for the last time this year.

After its unprecedented actions in October, no changes are expected, however, Governor Philip Lowe comments the following morning could provide key insights into the central bank outlook on what appears to be an improving economic backdrop.

On Wednesday, economists will be looking closely at the GDP numbers for the September quarter. Consensus forecasts have been revised upwards in recent weeks, such that despite the prolonged lockdown in Victoria, economists anticipate that national GDP growth may have increased by 2.5% on the prior quarter.

Should a positive result ensue, that would mark the end of a technical' recession, albeit comments from the RBA to that effect were widely lambasted weeks ago given the precarious nature of the economy.

Later in the week, we will also have the latest figures for services activity, home loans, imports and exports, as well as a final reading for October retail sales numbers.

In the US, non-farm payrolls will be in focus, particularly as the recovery in the jobs market has shown weakness of late due to rising jobless claims. Nonetheless, estimates predict a further improvement in the unemployment rate. China will also hand down manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI data throughout the week, which could prove to have an impact on global equities if growth comes in less than expected.

ASX major movers

Caught in the middle of a political rift between Australia and China, Treasury Wine Estates (ASX: TWE) will be on watch this week, with the company expected to exit its self-imposed trading halt. That halt was brought about by a sharp fall in the company share price following a decision from China Ministry of Commerce relating to tariffs for imported wine.

This morning, the winemaker has said demand for its wine in China is likely to be extremely limited, forcing it to immediately implement its response plan that will see it reallocate its portfolio to other regions, backed by additional investment in sales and marketing.

Gold shares, both big and small, have seen a wave of selling over the last three weeks, and with the price of gold falling further on Friday evening, volatility in the sector may not be over just yet. Stocks like Newcrest mining (ASX: NCM) and Silver Lake Resources (ASX: SLR) hit their lowest levels in more than six months last week.

Something that may play a role in the coming days is geopolitical tension following the assassination of Iran top nuclear scientist. Gold prices clawed back about 1% of their losses after the news, which some may believe represents a heightened risk of conflict.

Never short of its own share of trading volatility, Zip Co (ASX: Z1P) hosts its annual general meeting today, where the company has updated the market as to its recent trading operations, and its expansion efforts in the UK. Tomorrow, however, more than 26 million shares in Zip will be released from voluntary escrow, shares that were issued in relation to the company acquisition of QuadPay.There will be at least four new listings this week, with an additional couple floats flagged as tentative possibilities. Among those making their ASX debut will be Booktopia (ASX: BKG), an online book retailer that raised $43.1 million at $2.30 per share, pencilled in for Thursday trading.Rewards program Cashrewards (ASX: CRW) will list on Wednesday after its $65 million ipo was completed at $1.73 per share. Small-cap Hexima (ASX: HXL) comes to the market tomorrow, priced at $0.20 per share, while Nuix (ASX: NXL) will be the largest ipo of the bunch, after the software firm successfully raised $275.6 million at $5.31 per share.This week dividend shares include commercial explosives and blasting systems supplier Orica (ASX: ORI), gambling machine manufacturer Aristocrat Leisure (ASX: ALL), respiratory health care provider Fisher & Paykel Healthcare (ASX: FPH), and enterprise software company TechnologyOne (ASX: TNE).Finally, Xero (ASX: XRO) enters the new week with another fresh high under its belt, at odds with shaky performances from other tech stocks of late.It not the only stock full of momentum, however, as lithium miners Pilbara Minerals (ASX: PLS) and Orocobre (ASX: ORE) look to replicate their strong run of form, while regional lender Bank of Queensland (ASX: BOQ) and investment company Washington H. Soul Pattinson (ASX: SOL) both recorded new 52-week highs.

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